Origins — Guinea
The origin that replaced Indonesian bauxite.
A low-value, high-volume trade where the entire margin sits in barging, transhipment and moisture. Simandou is now adding a second commodity of global consequence alongside it.
- World bauxite exports
- Largest single origin
- Simandou iron ore grade
- ~65% Fe
- Rainy season
- May – October
- Loading method
- Barge and transhipment
Overview
Logistics is the whole business here.
Guinea took the bauxite export share Indonesia gave up in 2023, and it now supplies the majority of the feed for Chinese alumina refineries. That happened in under a decade, and it happened because the ore suits the refineries that needed it.
Bauxite is a low-value, high-volume cargo, which means the entire margin sits in logistics rather than in price. Ore is barged down the Rio Nuñez and Rio Kapatchez and transhipped to Capesize at anchorage off Kamsar and Boké. The wet season narrows that window and raises the moisture in every stockpile.
Simandou changes what this country is. High-grade direct shipping iron ore at around 65% Fe, with a 650 km trans-Guinean railway and a new port built to carry it, takes Guinea from a single-commodity exporter to a two-commodity one and puts real pressure on the 62% Fe Pilbara product it competes with.
The political risk is not theoretical. There has been a coup, a mining convention review, and export suspensions applied to individual operators as leverage. A cargo here can be stopped by a dispute that has nothing to do with the trade in front of you.
Minerals desk
Bauxite, and why the refineries wanted this ore.
Guinean bauxite is gibbsitic — trihydrate alumina that dissolves at low temperature in the Bayer process. Chinese refineries were built around exactly that characteristic, which is why the switch from Indonesian to Guinean feed was a change of supplier rather than a change of process.
The specification that matters is available alumina at 42 to 48%, and reactive silica, which is the penalty element because it consumes caustic soda and destroys refinery economics. Two cargoes at the same headline alumina and different reactive silica are worth different money.
Bauxite is an IMSBC Group A cargo that can liquefy. That classification exists because of the Bulk Jupiter, which sank in 2015 with the loss of eighteen crew carrying Malaysian bauxite. Every moisture certificate written on this trade traces back to that casualty, and we treat it as a safety document rather than a commercial formality.
Minerals desk →| Operation | Grade or location | Owner and route |
|---|---|---|
| CBG — Sangarédi and Boké | 42 – 48% available Al₂O₃ | Halco consortium with the Guinean state — the long-established operation, railed to Kamsar |
| SMB-Winning | Boké and Boffa | The consortium that built the export volume, barged and transhipped at anchorage |
| GAC | Boké | Emirates Global Aluminium — feeding its own alumina refinery in the UAE |
| Chalco Boffa | Boffa | Chinese refinery-integrated tonnes |
| Alliance Minière Guinéenne | Boké | Independent producer selling into the seaborne market |
Minerals desk
Simandou, and what a second high-grade origin does.
Simandou is the largest greenfield mine and infrastructure project in the world: four blocks in the south-east highlands, a 650 km railway across the country, and a new deepwater port at Morebaya. It was discovered decades ago and stalled repeatedly on politics and capital before construction finally ran.
The ore is direct shipping hematite at around 65% Fe with low impurities. That is Carajás territory, and it is materially better than the 62% Pilbara blends the index is written on. At plateau the project adds a volume of high-grade supply the seaborne market has not had a second source of.
For a trader the consequence is the differential rather than the flat price. A durable second origin for 65% Fe narrows the premium that Brazilian material has commanded, and it changes the blending economics for every mill that has been paying up for grade.
Minerals desk →| Asset | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Simandou blocks 1 and 2 | ~65% Fe DSO | Winning Consortium Simandou with the Guinean state |
| Simandou blocks 3 and 4 | ~65% Fe DSO | Simfer — Rio Tinto, Chinalco and the Guinean state |
| Trans-Guinean railway and Morebaya port | 650 km, shared infrastructure | Jointly used by both consortia — the project's actual hard part |
| Nimba | High-grade iron ore, undeveloped | On the Liberian border, historically routed through Liberia rather than Guinea |
Metals desk
Gold, industrial and otherwise.
Guinea's gold sits in the Siguiri basin on the Malian border, part of the same Birimian greenstone belt that runs through Mali, Burkina Faso and Ghana. It is a smaller book than bauxite and a straightforward one commercially — doré to a refinery, priced against the London benchmark.
The diligence question is the artisanal flow alongside it. Regional artisanal gold moves across borders and into refining chains with weak provenance, and gold from this belt requires chain of custody to a named operation rather than an assurance about a country.
Metals desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Siguiri | Doré | AngloGold Ashanti with the Guinean state — the principal industrial operation |
| Lefa | Doré | Nordgold, Siguiri basin |
| Kiniero | Doré, in development | Robex — smaller-scale industrial development |
Regulation
What can stop a cargo that is already sold.
Guinea rewards a trader who reads the mining convention rather than the mining code, and who treats the wet season as a planning input rather than an event.
- 01Mining code and state participation
- The state takes a free-carried interest in mining titles and negotiates convention-specific terms on top. The convention, not the code, is where the real economics of a given operation sit, and it is the document to read before contracting with a titleholder.
- 02Export suspension as leverage
- The government has suspended individual operators' exports over unmet convention obligations, including local refining and infrastructure commitments. A cargo can be stopped for a counterparty's failure that is entirely unconnected to the trade, which is a contractual risk that belongs in the sale terms rather than in hope.
- 03Domestic refining commitments
- Bauxite exporters carry pressure and, in several conventions, obligations to build alumina capacity in country. The direction of travel is the same as Indonesia's, and long-term offtakes are written on the assumption that raw export will get harder rather than easier.
- 04Community and land compensation
- The Boké region carries live disputes over land, dust, water and compensation, and these have interrupted operations. A supplier's community position is assessed as a supply reliability question, not only as an ESG one.
- 05Wet season and force majeure
- From May to October rainfall raises stockpile moisture and constrains barging. Force majeure and laycan wording is drafted around the actual seasonal pattern rather than a generic clause, because in this origin the season is predictable and therefore not an excuse.
- 06Moisture certification
- Every bauxite cargo requires transportable moisture limit certification before loading. In the wet season the margin between actual moisture and the limit narrows to very little, and a cargo that cannot certify does not sail regardless of what is contracted.
Execution
Rivers, anchorages and moisture.
- Barging down the Rio Nuñez and Rio Kapatchez to transhipment at anchorage, with floating cranes loading Capesize offshore
- Kamsar's channel is draft-restricted and tidal, so the rail-fed cargoes and the barge-fed cargoes run on different constraints
- Wet season from May to October — moisture rises across every stockpile and the certification margin narrows
- IMSBC Group A moisture certification on every bauxite cargo, treated as a safety document rather than paperwork
- Independent draft survey with a defined moisture deduction mechanic agreed before loading
- Convention compliance and export permit status verified on the seller before laycan, because a suspension elsewhere in their book stops our cargo
Origination
Bauxite and iron ore producers in Guinea can reach the minerals desk through our Dubai trading office.