Origins — Russia
The origin the restrictions are written about.
Published as market information. These commodities are systemically important, and the rules governing them differ between the United States, United Kingdom and European Union — which is the single most important thing to understand about the origin.
- Norilsk share of world palladium
- About 40%
- Alrosa share of rough diamonds
- About 30%
- LME and CME delivery
- Restricted
- G7 diamond measures
- Provenance required
Overview
A market map, not a buying list.
This page is published as market information rather than as an offer. Russia holds supply positions the world cannot replace on any short timescale — Norilsk alone accounts for roughly two in five ounces of world palladium and a large share of high-grade nickel — and a trader who does not understand where that metal comes from is not doing the job.
Since 2022 the binding constraint here has been legal rather than geological. The London Metal Exchange and CME stopped accepting newly produced Russian aluminium, copper and nickel for delivery; G7 measures cover rough and polished diamonds; and individual producers, banks and beneficial owners appear on national designation lists.
Those lists do not align. The United States, United Kingdom and European Union differ on scope, designation and wind-down periods, so material that is lawful for one counterparty selling into one destination may be prohibited for another.
Because the regimes differ, the same cargo can be lawful for one buyer and prohibited for another depending on where the counterparty sits, where the metal is going and when it was produced. Country-level generalisations about Russian material are unreliable in both directions.
Metals desk
Norilsk, and the palladium concentration problem.
Talnakh ore is a nickel-copper sulphide carrying an unusually palladium-rich platinum group basket — the mirror image of South Africa's platinum-dominant reefs. That is why the two producing regions are not substitutes for one another despite producing nominally the same metals.
Palladium goes overwhelmingly into petrol autocatalysts. There is no second source that could be brought on inside a decade, and the market's own answer to that concentration has been substitution: manufacturers engineered platinum back into palladium's applications after 2022, which is a permanent structural response rather than a cyclical one.
The same complex produces Class 1 nickel — the high-purity material that goes into batteries — and a meaningful share of world rhodium. Understanding the basket is the point: no part of this output can be assessed in isolation.
Metals desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Norilsk-Talnakh | Palladium, platinum, nickel, copper, rhodium | Nornickel, Krasnoyarsk Krai — the most concentrated PGM supply position in the world |
| Kola Division | Nickel and copper | Nornickel, Murmansk — refining as well as mining |
| Rusal — Bratsk, Krasnoyarsk, Sayanogorsk | Primary aluminium | Hydro-powered Siberian smelters; delisted from exchange delivery for new production |
Metals desk
Alrosa, Polyus, and the provenance question.
Alrosa produces roughly three in ten carats of world rough diamond supply from the Yakutian pipes. G7 measures ban Russian-origin stones and require verified provenance for rough above a carat threshold, routed through a designated verification node. That is the first time the diamond trade has had to prove origin at scale, and the machinery is still being built.
Gold is the hardest material to control because it is fungible and small. The response was to ban Russian-origin gold imports and to remove Russian refiners from good delivery accreditation, which shifts the control point from the metal to the refinery stamp on the bar.
Polyus operates Olimpiada and holds Sukhoi Log, the largest undeveloped gold deposit in the world at around forty million ounces. It is a reminder that supply concentration in this origin is not only about what is currently produced.
Metals desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Mirny, Udachny, Aikhal, Nyurba | Rough diamonds | Alrosa, Yakutia — around 30% of world rough by carats |
| Olimpiada, Blagodatnoye, Natalka | Gold | Polyus — among the largest gold operations in the world |
| Sukhoi Log | Gold, undeveloped | Polyus, Irkutsk — the largest undeveloped gold deposit anywhere |
Energy desk
Coal, fertiliser, and an instructive asymmetry.
Russian coal was redirected wholesale from Europe to Asia after the EU import ban, at wide discounts and with the freight, payment and insurance channels rebuilt around it. Elga is genuinely premium coking coal, and the discount it trades at is a measure of restriction rather than of quality.
Fertiliser was treated differently from metals, and the reason is worth understanding. Potash and phosphate have been largely carved out of sanctions on food security grounds — the judgement being that restricting them would harm importing countries more than the exporter. That asymmetry is deliberate policy, and it is why the potash market repriced on logistics and payment friction rather than on prohibition.
Even where a trade is lawful, it may be unexecutable. Correspondent banking, protection and indemnity cover and vessel availability constrain what can actually move. Legality is necessary and not sufficient, and that distinction is the whole practical lesson of this origin.
Energy desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Elga | Premium hard coking coal | Yakutia — redirected to Asian buyers at a discount |
| Kuzbass — Raspadskaya and others | Coking and thermal coal | Kemerovo — the historic export basin, constrained by rail east |
| Berezniki and Solikamsk | Potash | Uralkali, Perm Krai — largely carved out of sanctions on food security grounds |
| Khibiny | Apatite and phosphate | PhosAgro, Kola Peninsula |
| Mikhailovsky, Lebedinsky, Stoilensky | Iron ore and pellet | Kursk Magnetic Anomaly — Metalloinvest and NLMK |
| Priargunsky | Uranium | ARMZ, Transbaikal |
Regulation
What decides whether a trade is possible at all.
Three regimes that do not agree with each other, an exchange delivery ban, and a set of practical constraints that can make a lawful trade unexecutable.
- 01The regimes do not align
- United States, United Kingdom and European Union measures differ in scope, in who is designated and in wind-down periods. A single answer for 'Russian material' does not exist; the position turns on the trade, the counterparty and the destination.
- 02Exchange delivery restrictions
- The LME and CME refuse newly produced Russian aluminium, copper and nickel for delivery against their contracts. Metal already on warrant and physical metal off warrant are separate questions, and production date is the determining fact.
- 03Diamond provenance
- G7 measures ban Russian-origin stones and require verified provenance for rough above a carat threshold through a designated node. Provenance documentation is part of the parcel, not an attachment to it.
- 04Gold accreditation
- Russian-origin gold is subject to import bans and Russian refiners have been removed from good delivery accreditation. The refinery stamp, rather than the metal itself, is the practical control point.
- 05Fertiliser carve-outs
- Potash and phosphate have largely been exempted on food security grounds. That is a deliberate policy asymmetry rather than an oversight, and it does not extend to the payment, shipping and insurance channels, which remain constrained.
- 06Execution is a separate test
- Correspondent banking, P&I cover and vessel availability can make a lawful trade unexecutable. A trade can clear every legal test and still have no route to settlement.
Execution
What the restrictions actually require.
- Designation of counterparty, beneficial owner, vessel, flag and insurer differs between the US, UK and EU regimes, so each has to be read separately rather than treated as one list
- Exchange rules turn on production date, so newly produced metal and pre-existing stock are distinguished by documentation rather than by inspection
- Correspondent banking access, not legality, is frequently what determines whether payment can be made at all
- P&I and hull cover for these voyages is written by a narrower set of clubs than for ordinary trade, and cover is not assured
- AIS gaps across preceding voyages are a standard screening flag on tonnage in this trade
- G7 measures require provenance verification through a designated node for rough diamonds above a carat threshold
Origination
This page is published as market information. Nothing on it is an offer to buy or sell, and nothing on it describes what we do or do not trade.