Origins — South East Asia
Small volumes that move big prices.
This is a marginal-tonne region, and marginal tonnes set prices. It also contains material that is globally significant and effectively untraceable, and the two are worth separating.
- Philippine nickel ore
- China's swing feed
- Heavy rare earths from Myanmar
- Main external source
- Vietnamese tungsten
- Largest outside China
- Governance quality
- Highly variable
Overview
The swing supply, and the material nobody else has.
Indonesia has its own page. What is left across the rest of the region is not a volume story — it is a marginal-tonne story, and marginal tonnes are what set prices.
Philippine laterite is the ore Chinese nickel producers buy when Indonesian supply tightens, which makes it the price-setting increment rather than the bulk of supply. It ships as ore rather than as an intermediate, so it is one of the few places left where a trader buys nickel units in raw form.
Myanmar is the uncomfortable entry. Kachin State ion-adsorption clays are the principal external feed for Chinese heavy rare earth separation, and Wa State supplies a material share of world tin — the 2023 mining suspension there moved the LME directly. Both sit in territory controlled by non-state armed groups, which makes them a sourcing question before a commercial one.
Governance quality varies more inside this region than almost anywhere else. Country-level generalisations are unreliable here in a way they are not in Australia or Canada, and the differences run between provinces and counterparties rather than between nations.
Minerals desk
Philippine nickel, the swing tonne.
Laterite ore is direct-shipped at 1.3 to 1.8% nickel rather than processed at origin, which is the opposite of the Indonesian model and the reason the Philippines became China's alternative feed the moment Indonesia banned ore exports.
The seasonality is extreme and predictable. The north-east monsoon closes Surigao loading for months, so Philippine supply arrives in a window and disappears outside it. Anyone modelling this origin on annual averages is modelling something that does not exist.
An ore export ban has been proposed repeatedly and not passed, while domestic processing capacity is slowly being built. A long-dated position here is partly a position on whether the country follows Indonesia's policy path, and the honest answer is that nobody knows.
Minerals desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Tuba and Taganito | Nickel laterite and HPAL | Nickel Asia with Sumitomo — ore plus the country's processing capacity |
| Surigao del Norte mines | 1.3 – 1.8% Ni direct shipping ore | Multiple operators — the swing feed for Chinese NPI |
| Didipio | Copper-gold | OceanaGold, Nueva Vizcaya |
| Toledo and Padcal | Copper concentrate | Carmen Copper and Philex |
| Tampakan | Copper-gold, undeveloped | South Cotabato — a world-scale deposit stalled for decades |
| Semirara | Thermal coal | Semirara Mining — largely domestic power supply |
Metals desk
Myanmar: a market map, not a buying list.
This section is here because the material is globally significant, and any trader who does not understand it is mispricing tin and rare earths.
Wa State tin is a substantial share of world mine supply, and the 2023 suspension of mining there tightened the global market and repriced the LME within weeks. Kachin State ion-adsorption clays are the main external feed for Chinese dysprosium and terbium separation, crossing into Yunnan for processing.
Both sit in territory administered by non-state armed groups, alongside sanctions measures targeting military-linked entities. In practice there is no chain of custody for most of this material that would survive inspection, and that is the central commercial fact about it rather than a footnote to it.
Metals desk →| Source | Material | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Man Maw, Wa State | Tin concentrate | A material share of world mine supply; the 2023 suspension moved the LME |
| Kachin State clays | Heavy rare earths — Dy, Tb | The principal external feed for Chinese separation capacity |
| Bawdwin | Lead, zinc, silver | Shan State — historically one of the great polymetallic deposits |
| Letpadaung and Monywa | Copper cathode | Chinese-operated, and subject to sanctions and reputational scrutiny |
Metals desk
Vietnam, Laos and the tungsten exception.
Nui Phao is the largest tungsten operation outside China, and tungsten sits on every critical minerals list precisely because of how concentrated the rest of supply is. It also produces fluorspar and bismuth, which makes it one of the few polymetallic critical-minerals assets outside Chinese control.
Vietnamese bauxite in the Central Highlands feeds domestic alumina rather than the seaborne trade, and the Dong Pao rare earth deposit has been discussed for years without becoming a producing asset. Quang Ninh anthracite is a specialised, largely domestic coal.
Laos is small and improving. Sepon produces copper and gold, and the Vientiane basin potash projects are the region's only meaningful fertiliser resource, aimed squarely at Chinese and Southeast Asian demand.
Metals desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and location |
|---|---|---|
| Nui Phao | Tungsten, fluorspar, bismuth | Masan, Thai Nguyen — the largest tungsten operation outside China |
| Tan Rai and Nhan Co | Bauxite and alumina | Vinacomin, Central Highlands — feeding domestic refining |
| Dong Pao | Rare earths, undeveloped | Lai Chau — repeatedly announced, not yet producing |
| Quang Ninh | Anthracite | Vinacomin — high-rank coal, largely domestic |
| Sepon | Copper and gold | Laos — Chifeng Jilong |
| Vientiane basin | Potash | Asia-Potash and others — the region's only fertiliser resource of scale |
Metals desk
Papua New Guinea and the Pacific.
Papua New Guinea holds several genuinely large copper-gold and gold operations in some of the most difficult terrain and infrastructure conditions anywhere. Landowner agreements and government participation are central to whether an asset operates, and Porgera's multi-year suspension and renegotiated ownership is the standing example.
New Caledonia is the cautionary tale of the region. It holds world-class nickel laterite and its operations have been mothballed or run at a loss, because Indonesian supply and European energy costs together made them uncompetitive regardless of the orebody.
Metals desk →| Operation | Product | Owner and note |
|---|---|---|
| Ok Tedi | Copper-gold concentrate | PNG state-owned, Western Province |
| Lihir | Gold | Newmont, New Ireland — a caldera-hosted deposit of exceptional size |
| Porgera | Gold | Barrick and PNG interests — restarted after suspension and renegotiation |
| Ramu | Nickel-cobalt MHP | MCC, Madang — HPAL, feeding the battery chain |
| Wafi-Golpu | Copper-gold, undeveloped | Newmont and Harmony — long-delayed on permitting |
| Koniambo and Goro | Nickel | New Caledonia — mothballed or loss-making against Indonesian supply |
Regulation
What governs each country on this page.
Governance varies more within this region than almost anywhere else, and the constraints differ sharply between the four countries on this page.
- 01Philippines — export and open-pit policy
- An open-pit moratorium was imposed and later lifted, and an ore export ban is proposed periodically without passing. Any long-dated position here carries that policy risk whether or not it is priced.
- 02Philippines — fiscal regime and tenement status
- Royalty and windfall provisions have been revised, and what applies depends on the tenement type a given operation holds. Tenement status is an operation-level question rather than a company-level one.
- 03Myanmar — sanctions and territorial control
- US, UK and EU measures target military-linked entities, and much of the tin and rare earth production sits in territory held by non-state armed groups. Sanctions screening and chain of custody are the gating questions for any buyer, and most material from this origin does not pass them.
- 04Conflict minerals frameworks
- Tin, tantalum and tungsten from this region fall under the same US and EU conflict minerals rules that govern Congolese material, with the same traceability expectations flowing back up the chain from downstream buyers.
- 05Vietnam and Laos — state ownership and licensing
- Major resources sit with state groups and export is licensed. The counterparty is often an arm of government, which changes both the negotiation and the sanctions and anti-bribery diligence around it.
- 06PNG — landowner agreements and state participation
- Government equity and landowner benefit agreements determine whether an operation runs. Porgera's suspension and renegotiation is the reference case, and the agreement matters more than the permit.
Execution
Monsoon, anchorage and provenance.
- Surigao and Palawan load in the dry window — the north-east monsoon closes the Philippine nickel season for months and is a planning input, not an interruption
- Nickel ore is IMSBC Group A and this region is where several liquefaction casualties originated; moisture certification is a safety requirement rather than a formality
- Transhipment at anchorage on most Philippine nickel loadings, with barge availability setting laytime
- Typhoon season routing and laycan allowance from June to November across the Philippines and the western Pacific
- Chain of custody to a named operation is the practical requirement on any tin, tantalum or rare earth material from the region
- Myanmar exposure brings US, UK and EU designation screening on counterparty, vessel, flag and ultimate beneficial owner
Origination
Producers across the region can reach the origination team through our Jakarta operations office.